[212Export]

Dear friends

Some weeks ago I started a thread "prices of mid tier Ferraris finally falling !"

So far, I could not have been more wrong with my assumptions!

Checking RM planned Maranello Auction offers

www.rmauctions.com

and glaring at they're indicated price estimates, my jaw (again) is falling.

You like a 365 GTB/4 Daytona: estimate Euro 340' - 408', would you prefer a F40: Euro 380' - 450 (the one for 290-350 must be bad..it's soooooo cheap), F 50: Euro 550' - 700' or a 275 GTB/4 Euro 1 Mio. or so.....! Should we move to the cars which normally pleases the classic crowd not very well i.e. a 250 PF coupé: Euro 200'. Please be reminded that all these estimates in addition will ask for the commission and traditionally on half of the lots for importation and VAT fee's.


Interestingly, several of the types of cars offered on the auction list are available here in Switzerland on the open market. This week, a F40 was sold for Euro 250, 4 weeks ago, a F50 was sold for Euro 300', Daytonas sell for Euro 220'. Either all the (high) estimates are paid at the auction which would translate to higher asking prices in the market here as well or vice versa. But since these lower prices are offered AND the cars are not sold yet...again what's wrong with my assumption? I guess I'm just to dumb. Like in '98 and '99 when I was not understanding the market in the dotcom shares and sold all those papers and stocks way, way, way to early (I did not had them either in '00 to '03.

What have I done wrongly in my assumption ? The discussion is open !

 

[Boxer]

Dear friends

Some weeks ago I started a thread "prices of mid tier Ferraris finally falling !"

So far, I could not have been more wrong with my assumptions!

Checking RM planned Maranello Auction offers

www.rmauctions.com

and glaring at they're indicated price estimates, my jaw (again) is falling.

You like a 365 GTB/4 Daytona: estimate Euro 340' - 408', would you prefer a F40: Euro 380' - 450 (the one for 290-350 must be bad..it's soooooo cheap), F 50: Euro 550' - 700' or a 275 GTB/4 Euro 1 Mio. or so.....! Should we move to the cars which normally pleases the classic crowd not very well i.e. a 250 PF coupé: Euro 200'. Please be reminded that all these estimates in addition will ask for the commission and traditionally on half of the lots for importation and VAT fee's.


Interestingly, several of the types of cars offered on the auction list are available here in Switzerland on the open market. This week, a F40 was sold for Euro 250, 4 weeks ago, a F50 was sold for Euro 300', Daytonas sell for Euro 220'. Either all the (high) estimates are paid at the auction which would translate to higher asking prices in the market here as well or vice versa. But since these lower prices are offered AND the cars are not sold yet...again what's wrong with my assumption? I guess I'm just to dumb. Like in '98 and '99 when I was not understanding the market in the dotcom shares and sold all those papers and stocks way, way, way to early (I did not had them either in '00 to '03.

What have I done wrongly in my assumption ? The discussion is open !

I am at a complete loss. RM seems to be shooting for the moon +20%.

 

[t1fosI]

What have I done wrongly in my assumption ? The discussion is open !

There is nothing to say that your assumptions are incorrect, to me it seems that you follow the market very, very closely and are basing your assumptions on rational data. There are two questions in my mind.

1. Is the market rational?
2. Are the sellers' assumptions valid?

Perhaps they are looking for 'sovereign funds' to help achieve the targets



.

 

[212Export]

There is nothing to say that your assumptions are incorrect, to me it seems that you follow the market very, very closely and are basing your assumptions on rational data. There are two questions in my mind.

1. Is the market rational?
2. Are the sellers' assumptions valid?

Perhaps they are looking for 'sovereign funds' to help achieve the targets



.

Thank you for reminding me to this 2 important questions

In such a case one step back from a "object of desire" may be one step forward.

 

[Boxer]

There is nothing to say that your assumptions are incorrect, to me it seems that you follow the market very, very closely and are basing your assumptions on rational data. There are two questions in my mind.

1. Is the market rational?
2. Are the sellers' assumptions valid?

Perhaps they are looking for 'sovereign funds' to help achieve the targets



.

I have recently heard of the Ferrari Supercars being referred to as "Red Gold". In one particular case, the person was buying a second Enzo/F40 to hold purely as an investment. IMHO, this is a sign that things are really starting to get interesting and who knows where it will finally stabilize. In the end price is driven by supply and demand. When looking at the public market, there are far fewer F40s and F50s for sale anywhere vs 12-18 months ago. Hence you have demand chasing extremely limited supply.

 

[t1fosI]

Hence you have demand chasing extremely limited supply.

I suspect we are entering an era where the amount of 'red' money coming into the market is about to increase substantially.

It may be worthwhile doing a historical/current pricing analysis using something comparative such as the McLaren F1 or a Porsche 959.

 

[alsaautomotive]

I'm not so sure.
A helluva lot of stuff on the market hasn't moved in months.
That's not to say that the seriously top end stuff has the demand outstripping supply & will continue to gain value, but I think the mid tier stuff is now largely overvalued by sellers/auctioneers in an attempt to keep the prices talked up.
I would be very suprised if RM achieve a sale rate above 60%.

 

[212Export]

I'm not so sure.
A helluva lot of stuff on the market hasn't moved in months.
That's not to say that the seriously top end stuff has the demand outstripping supply & will continue to gain value, but I think the mid tier stuff is now largely overvalued by sellers/auctioneers in an attempt to keep the prices talked up.
I would be very suprised if RM achieve a sale rate above 60%.

This is my sense too but it needs be seen how the auction goes. Especially if lots are rated as "sold" even if the selling price is 20% below the low end of the estimate. This would be a indication that the official estimates have been grossly exaggerated.

 

[Boxer]

One problem with both the RM Maranello and Bonhams Gstaad actions is that you get a lot of "image/beautiful moneyed set" bidding for ego and bragging rights. The net outcome is prices in many cases that far exceed the true values. Dealers then use the ego driven bidding to justify immediately big hikes up on stock that has not moved in months. This really is artificial as the ego bidder are not the same buyers who will visit multiple dealers, look at several different examples of a model, and spend 6-12 months to find the perfect Ferrari (i.e. the true enthusiast owner).

 

[212Export]

One problem with both the RM Maranello and Bonhams Gstaad actions is that you get a lot of "image/beautiful moneyed set" bidding for ego and bragging rights. The net outcome is prices in many cases that far exceed the true values. Dealers then use the ego driven bidding to justify immediately big hikes up on stock that has not moved in months. This really is artificial as the ego bidder are not the same buyers who will visit multiple dealers, look at several different examples of a model, and spend 6-12 months to find the perfect Ferrari (i.e. the true enthusiast owner).

I could not agree more! In addition RM remains as the ONLY important, globally meaningful operational Car auctioneer. Their influence, internally and externally (to the consigments of sellers and consulting them in their decision as to the outside, the willingful potential buyers) reminds me at the Hunt brothers, cornering the silver market in 1980. If you seriuosly think about, RM's position is by now almost a monoplic one in the global auctioneering market of the really important cars.