Oil is a fascinating topic, the geo-political situation is always foremost in everyones mind, but there are so many other factors & players.
In brief my opinion is that there is no shortage of oil in the market today, what we are seeing is the market speculating that there will be a future shortage (most likely as a result of increased demand from industrialising Eastern economies) and this is pushing up the price of crude oil.
When we speak about the price of fuel, I think this must be seperated from the price of crude. It must be noted that oil is used to manufacture other than fuel (e.g. plastics).
So the price of fuel - in my opinion, the price that we pay at the pump (or for heating oil) today should technically not be a consequence of the price of crude oil today. There is a temporal delay in bringing fuel to market, so the price of fuel today theoretically in the main should be determined by the price of crude say a year ago (futures markets etc). However in reality this is not the case. When the price of crude goes up, the price of fuel goes up immediately. In my opinion this is a consequence of the oil refiners/fuel distributors using current events to ensure they optimise retail prices thereby maximising profit.
The question is, if today oil is $146/Barrel - what will be the price of fuel one year from now? no idea, but you can bet your bottom dolllar that it will be higher than it is today (as have the speculators).
I agree with Archie that fuel prices are extremely unlikely to come down and that this trend will continue (for us in the developed economies anyway).
If we contextualise these high fuel prices within the realm of the greater economy (in the UK at least) they come at a time when a number of other factors are at play.
The economy has been growing for a few years as a result of greater public sector spending and low interest rates (translate into cheap money). However,
1) The public purse is now empty and the government is living on overdraft, so it has to cutback (a classic case of spending more than you earn). However in order to sustain its 'high maintenance lifestyle' it is attempting to increase earnings by increasing taxes (i.e resorting to daylight robbery).
2) Interest rates are going up - because the Gov't, sorry Bank of England, believes that inflation is too high (one reason for no more 'cheap' money)
3) Banks are more cautious about lending - sorry we lent you more than you earn and now we want it back (aka 'credit crunch' another reason for no more 'cheap' money).
As our economy has begun to retract (interest rates have been increasing since early last year ('07) to combat inflation, the credit crunch started in June 07, the Gov't has been bankrupt for some time) other economies have continued to grow. So in antcipation of demand from these developing economies the people who buy and sell oil have decided that as the demand there increases prices will also probably increase. This means that we too have to pay a higher price for oil ( & so fuel) at a time when we are paying higher prices for everything else already (inflation, no 'cheap' money). The developing economies who were growing as a result of the money we were spending with them are now also slowing (partly because we are not spending as much money with them) and as they work on thinner margins they are now feeling the pinch.
I could go on, but I better get back to work!
Only one more thing for now, the higher prices we pay for fuel serve the interests of our Govt for 3 reasons
1. Increased tax reciepts from a) Crude b) Fuel duty/VAT.
2. Increased prices are helping slow the economy so should reduce inflation in the longer term (irony)
3. They have a 'bogeyman' which detracts peoples attentions from their own incompetance! 'Wag the Dog!'
The FT has an ongoing analysis on the oil situation for anyone who is interested, you can read upto 5 articles before it asks you to subscribe just reset you browser/cookies and it will let you read another 5 etc. Definately worth a subscription in my opinion

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http://www.ft.com/indepth/oil
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