How much more will the 360 depreciate? - Ferrari Life
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post #1 of 30 Old 07-10-2012, 08:15 PM Thread Starter
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How much more will the 360 depreciate?

Been keeping an eye out for a 360 F1 and the price seems to stay around 70-80K. I guess my price point is closer to 60K. My question is, if I wait a few more years, will the price drop down to the 60K range or has the price dropped as low as it'll go? Thanks.
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post #2 of 30 Old 07-10-2012, 08:55 PM
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Been keeping an eye out for a 360 F1 and the price seems to stay around 70-80K. I guess my price point is closer to 60K. My question is, if I wait a few more years, will the price drop down to the 60K range or has the price dropped as low as it'll go? Thanks.
Life is short - go for it!

99.9% of cars that are driven depreciate - Ferrari's are no different other than you get to enjoy the ownership of the greatest marque ever built.

Well worth it - IMO.
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post #3 of 30 Old 07-10-2012, 09:48 PM
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Speaking VERY generally and in my opinion, the depreciation curve of most non collectable Ferrari's runs at about 15 years. They usually sit there for a few more years. After that, all bets are off. The 348 has been flat line for about 5 years now (when adjusted for economy) and the 355 is starting the flat line. I would expect the 360 to have a few more years of minor depreciation then flat line. If I was in the market, I doubt I'd wait for the last bits of depreciation. Its probably close enough now.

Its really just my opinion thou

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post #4 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 12:10 AM
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I estimate they will settle out just above 355 prices and agree they have a few more years until they reach that point. However, the bottom 360s are about there now.

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post #5 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 06:07 AM
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There is no way to forecast how a specific car will depreciate if it's adding miles / wear and tear.

Ferrari buyers are tough - they scrutinize a Ferrari like a piece of art.

IMO - this whole depreciation thing is ROI which varies from owner to owner.

Some owners drive their Ferrari a whopping 10 miles every other Sunday others use it for their dd / track their Ferrari.

360's are ridiculously cheap - but it is what it is. I would be more concerned for the guy looking to buy one if he can maintain it properly.
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post #6 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 07:32 AM
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Quote:
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Speaking VERY generally and in my opinion, the depreciation curve of most non collectable Ferrari's runs at about 15 years. They usually sit there for a few more years. After that, all bets are off. The 348 has been flat line for about 5 years now (when adjusted for economy) and the 355 is starting the flat line. I would expect the 360 to have a few more years of minor depreciation then flat line. If I was in the market, I doubt I'd wait for the last bits of depreciation. Its probably close enough now.

Its really just my opinion thou
Agreed with Saint Bastage.

All of my pricing research has indicated a gradual flattening of the pricing curve over the past 10-12 months, and I have tracked the data on a bi-weekly basis. Actually, right now, the curve is headed upwards slightly for the 360 Spider. I assume that is a seasonal effect going into the summer driving season.

I believe the 360 will flat line in the next 2-3 years, but the depreciation to that point will be fairly slight. I would estimate 1.5% per 6 month period - there just isn't that much downward movement right now. I totally agree with the "close enough now" comment above - the overall depreciation trend for AVERAGE cars excluding the outlying points will be less valuable than the time / smiles per mile gained by the earlier point-of-entry into the car.
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post #7 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 07:56 AM
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Agreed with Saint Bastage.

All of my pricing research has indicated a gradual flattening of the pricing curve over the past 10-12 months, and I have tracked the data on a bi-weekly basis. Actually, right now, the curve is headed upwards slightly for the 360 Spider. I assume that is a seasonal effect going into the summer driving season.

I believe the 360 will flat line in the next 2-3 years, but the depreciation to that point will be fairly slight. I would estimate 1.5% per 6 month period - there just isn't that much downward movement right now. I totally agree with the "close enough now" comment above - the overall depreciation trend for AVERAGE cars excluding the outlying points will be less valuable than the time / smiles per mile gained by the earlier point-of-entry into the car.
Problem is no two Ferrari's are alike.

When I bought the 612 three years ago an 03 Spider highly spec'd with 5k was around 105,000 pretty close to where they are today.

Not arguing but this blanket commodity thing doesn't hold water.
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post #8 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 09:07 AM
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Problem is no two Ferrari's are alike.

When I bought the 612 three years ago an 03 Spider highly spec'd with 5k was around 105,000 pretty close to where they are today.

Not arguing but this blanket commodity thing doesn't hold water.
I agree Doug...I'm just speaking in general terms. Every car is different.

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post #9 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 09:08 AM
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I agree Doug...I'm just speaking in general terms. Every car is different.
I am in sort of a spunky mood - was hoping to liven things up
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post #10 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 09:39 AM
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I am in sort of a spunky mood - was hoping to liven things up
I liked the analogy you made about Ferrari buyers scrutinizing a car like a piece of art. I think we agree on the general principals of discussion - I don't personally disagree with you all that much.

But at some point, sellers have to work within realistic boundaries. For instance, today the AVERAGE asking price for a 2005 RED 360 Spider (through autotrader, cars.com, dupont registry, and FML) is $124,029. For the same car as a 2004, with the same sources, it's $109,680. A delta of nearly $15,000 - WHY?!? Averages sound high, right? Especially when you consider that Ferrari Market Letter pins the current "Asking Price Index" value for the 360 Spider at $95,574, but if you know FML, it isn't as specific as the average numbers I've stated from my sources. And I have no idea how they calculate their number - it isn't publicly disclosed.

Some sellers are asking $139,000 for a 2005 Red Spider with mileage in the low thousands. Does that seem reasonable? Probably not. Likewise, would I want to end up with one around $85k? Financially yes, but the car might be a bit questionable.

Also, if Ebay is any indication, cars aren't selling through that outlet in the six figures. All successful sales have been less than $95k. No flames - I know ebay isn't the place to by your Ferrari. But at least it gives us a feel for what buyers are offering vis-a-vis what sellers are accepting (or in this case not accepting).

Also in terms of auction cars, my leasing agent ran a Manheim search for me last week:
2004 360 Spider since 12/15/11:
6 Sales
LOW: $70,000 - 23,081 Miles, Below Avg Condition YELLOW
HIGH: $91,000 - 10,813 Miles, Above Avg Condition RED

2005 360 Spider since 4/20/11
4 Sales
LOW: $92,000 - 8,270 Miles, Avg Condition SILVER
HIGH: $113,000 - 7,221 Miles, Avg Condition RED

I believe that a "cherry" car is exactly that - a "cherry." Does that command a premium? Probably. Does that premium match between buyers and sellers? Apparently not.

It's an interesting time right now for 360 buyers. I've digested a LOT of pricing data over the past several months, and these are my conclusions. Eventually, the remaining depreciation (even if it's fairly minor) WILL catch up with all of these cars because they're not "collector" cars, and operate fairly close to any normal car in terms of the principal of depreciation.

That said, I don't think there's that much depreciation left as I've said before. There is probably 15-20 percent left to depreciate on 2005 Red Spiders, and maybe something more like 5-10 percent on 2004 Red Spiders. But we can't forecast what affect mileage, color, condition, and records will have much further than 12 months from now.

Of course, if you don't care about Red Spiders (that's all I'm looking at for potential ease of resale) then this exact data is essentially worthless.

Cheers!
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post #11 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 11:34 AM
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I am in sort of a spunky mood - was hoping to liven things up

Ohh sorry...didn't realize your intentions. In that case.

Doug GFY. These cars are just hunks of metal and the depreciation curve is a simple calculation that can be performed by any 6th grader. Wetpet will be happy to explain it to you!

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post #12 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 12:18 PM
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Here is what you are missing - forget the pricing entirely for a moment.

Ferrari's like the 360 are a reward - no one needs a 360.

So keep in mind that sellers really aren't sellers unless they have it on e-bay with no reserve.

I paid a premium for both my Ferrari's of at least 5% - it's always fun to find the best deal but it's the last thing I would consider when buying a Ferrari for myself.

It's not like shopping all the dealers for a new Caddy - these cars are individually valued and a 2005 360 at a higher price today may look silly - but when you go to resell your car you will understand and appreciate the sellers who aren't desperate also my guess is the 05 360's are for the most part original owners.

Last bit - unless you compare sticker to sticker and service update to service update etc - they are numbers in general.

Now go buy one
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post #13 of 30 Old 07-11-2012, 12:43 PM
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Ohh sorry...didn't realize your intentions. In that case.

Doug GFY. These cars are just hunks of metal and the depreciation curve is a simple calculation that can be performed by any 6th grader. Wetpet will be happy to explain it to you!

LOL - just trying to liven up the place vs kill it.

FWIW - depreciation is an accounting term us owners like to refer to as a tax deduction.
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post #14 of 30 Old 07-12-2012, 06:32 AM
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If I approached the purchase of my Ferrari in terms of a sound financial decision I would not have one. I wanted one now, so I paid the going price. Perhaps it may be 15k cheaper in 3 years but to me it's just a 15k fee to drive it TODAY instead of 3 years from now.

IMO if someone wants to play the depreciation game. The best bet is to buy someone else's 3-year old cream puff at 30% off of sticker. Then get in and drive!!!
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post #15 of 30 Old 07-12-2012, 08:13 AM
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I will agree to kulferrari - Ferrari's are a want and not a need. But I will say for must of us "car guys" we all know (at least I know) I will loose money on any any car I buy (either with maintenance, depreciation, insurance, etc etc)...
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post #16 of 30 Old 07-12-2012, 08:15 PM
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speak for yourself, I NEEDED my 360

Its my driver 2 or 3 days a week and when it rains, other days I drive 2 wheels.
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post #17 of 30 Old 07-12-2012, 08:28 PM
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Amen to that
Cheers!
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post #18 of 30 Old 07-12-2012, 08:42 PM
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It's fortunate that some of us don't have to worry about depreciation, but we're a lucky few. The OP said his price point is near $60K. So, if he want's a 360 in the near future, depreciation is a factor he'll have to consider.

HNG, the price of good 360s will probably not reach your 60K mark for some time. Others have estimated full depreciation at about the 15 year mark. Although, it's hard to predict with the kind of accuracy most potential buyers desire. You also don't say whether you're looking for a spider or coupe, nor what options. Those factors will make a difference too.

One more thing for you to think about is maintenance. While the 360 has proven to be fairly reliable, you can expect increased maintenance as they reach full depreciation.

I suggest you read the buyers guide and some of Mike Sheehan's articles. They will also help you determine when your budget line will cross the depreciation curve....

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post #19 of 30 Old 07-13-2012, 07:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hng View Post
Been keeping an eye out for a 360 F1 and the price seems to stay around 70-80K. I guess my price point is closer to 60K. My question is, if I wait a few more years, will the price drop down to the 60K range or has the price dropped as low as it'll go? Thanks.
Prices on any Ferrari model are always across a fairly wide band. For 360s in the UK it is from just under 40k-65k. However there is no such thing as a bargain Ferrari. It is just a question of when you pay. Much better to pay a bit more for the right car with a great history and in clean PPI, than a trade auction bargain that some dealer is unloading quickly.

I am sure you can find a 360 for $60k now if you take a very liberal position in regards to color and condition.
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post #20 of 30 Old 07-13-2012, 07:25 AM
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All the other regular 8cyl (and many 12cyl) have bottomed out well below 50k. i see no reason the 355, 360 and even the 430 will not do the same at some point in time. Specially since they made a hell of a lot more of them than older models i am basing this on. I don't see why the 328 won't someday be more than a 360. That's the history.

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