Market price increases & when will the music stop - Ferrari Life
 
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post #1 of 20 Old 09-18-2015, 08:31 AM Thread Starter
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Market price increases & when will the music stop

The run up in the values of almost all Ferraris pre the 360 & 599 has been startling in the last several years.

When do we think it will end?

When it ends how big a correction do you think the market will have?

Which models will be impacted the most?
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post #2 of 20 Old 09-18-2015, 08:54 AM
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Market price increases & when will the music stop

Lots of children of the 80s finally in a position to realize their dreams. I'd say we have about a decade left in the run up, including the Baby Boomer generation with more disposable income coming online.

I also believe the manual modern cars ( post-Enzo ) will appreciate over time.
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post #3 of 20 Old 09-18-2015, 11:49 AM Thread Starter
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Longer term, do you believe Daytona will remain $800k-$1mil cars, 275 GTBs in the $2-4 mil range, 330 GTCs at $700-900k, 308s at $100k-150k, 246 GTs in the $400-500k range, etc?

Most of these have tripled or quadrupled in the last 3-4 years which is starting to feel a lot like the market in the late 80s.
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post #4 of 20 Old 09-18-2015, 03:57 PM
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I think it's generational, at least that seems to be the case with muscle cars.

Popular culture, TV shows (Magnum PI, Miami Vice, etc.) may be driving interest in 80s Ferraris right now. That, coupled with people taking profit out of the stock market and buying hard assets. I'm uncertain if we are in a bubble, and if so, it probably could run another 5-10 years. TR prices doubled in one year, which is just crazy. All that's done is increase my insurance premiums on my TR, but I'm not complaining too loudly.

I don't think you can go wrong with any twelve cylinder cars with three pedals. It also looks like 430 MT are approaching $200,000 now and I believe there's been a slight uptick in MT 360s as well. 575s for $300,000 - wow!

F40, F50, Daytonas, etc. should hold their own and will always be in demand. Heck, look what the Dino's and Lussos have done!
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post #5 of 20 Old 09-18-2015, 03:58 PM
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I forgot to ask, how's Texas? Any plans to visit DC this year?
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post #6 of 20 Old 09-18-2015, 06:40 PM
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Certain cars especially Ferrari's seem to be as much art as auto.

So many feather dusted cars which makes me believe they can't accept / afford depreciation or maintenance but they love having a piece of the dream.

Then you have brokers calling owners promising wish list prices and amazingly they are getting it.

Guys love buying toys - in good times they simply buy higher quality and quantity I don't expect things to change or see shrinkage for 3-5 years.
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post #7 of 20 Old 09-18-2015, 07:38 PM
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Prices will just keep going up. Once the Chinese et al get a taste for them well........ A 22 yo Chinese student in our car club just bought a one of one Tributo 312T Niki Lauda 458 Speciale. Beautiful car. Price is irrelevant.

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post #8 of 20 Old 09-19-2015, 06:55 AM Thread Starter
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I forgot to ask, how's Texas? Any plans to visit DC this year?
I might be in DC in October. Will let you know. Texas is good but fairly devoid of great driving roads in my area.

On the Ferrari market, agree that F40s, F50s, Enzos all 250s etc will hold value. Just not sure that Dinos, 308s, Daytonas, 550s are headed back down to more earthly levels at some point.

I do agree that manuals will hold value better than F1s.
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post #9 of 20 Old 09-19-2015, 09:20 PM
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Cars will be self driving soon

Imagine how folks will be looking at 3 pedal Ferrari's
Ferrari is a world collectible car unlike 55 Chebbys

Enough said

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post #10 of 20 Old 09-20-2015, 05:37 AM Thread Starter
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Prices will just keep going up. Once the Chinese et al get a taste for them well........ A 22 yo Chinese student in our car club just bought a one of one Tributo 312T Niki Lauda 458 Speciale. Beautiful car. Price is irrelevant.
I doubt China will be a big market for classic Ferraris anytime in the near future. Given the current anti-corruption crackdown, displays of wealth and luxury items are out of vogue.
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post #11 of 20 Old 09-20-2015, 07:05 AM
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...On the Ferrari market, agree that F40s, F50s, Enzos all 250s etc will hold value. Just not sure that Dinos, 308s, Daytonas, 550s are headed back down to more earthly levels at some point.

I do agree that manuals will hold value better than F1s.
A few comments: I think things like 250s, 275s etc. have been fairly static for a little while now.


There has been frenzy on some of the more modern things like Testarossas and so on over the last few months and even, in the UK a 599 "Alonso" edition that was advertised at around the $1 million mark and then shortly after appeared has sold - which is beyond insanity to me for a car that is just an ugly paint job on a standard 599. I think the relevant question is who is buying these cars and I rather get the impression that it isn't car enthusiasts who are paying these prices but people seeking an investment return. I don't believe this is "children of the '80s" or new market investors buying these cars. If it were then that would give you a steady increase in prices not a suddne sharp rise which is what we have seen (although I primarily see UK prices). To me this looks just like the '80s before the crash and I am convinced there will be a "correction" on some of these at some point. When? Who knows but if someone did payUS $1 million for a 599 "Alonso" then I cannot believe they will ever get more than a fraction of their money back.


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post #12 of 20 Old 09-20-2015, 04:40 PM
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I expect some of the special cars to hold prices, such as F40, 288GTO, Enzo, 360 CS, F430 Scuderia, 599 GTO, 458 Speciale, etc.

However, I just can't imagine prices for 308, 328, TR holding much longer. Those cars are way over-priced, IMO. They made so many of them and their performance is nothing special. Then again, who knows what markets in China & Russia will dictate.

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post #13 of 20 Old 09-21-2015, 06:08 PM
 
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We shall see. The trucker who dropped off my car had a story to share. Back in the early 1990s he was tasked to go pick up 2 308s. Once he had them loaded the owner said "Finally this is the last of them and I only lost a million". The market bubble had burst. There are "investors" and "speculators" pushing up the prices. When either or both groups get spooked they will stampede out of the exotic car market.

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post #14 of 20 Old 09-21-2015, 08:43 PM
 
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Ferrari's are just like fine art...it's generally a bad, or illiquid, investment. It can be difficult if you need to sell...w/o losing money, or too much.

You can get in and out in a heartbeat if your money is in the S&P 500, for example.
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post #15 of 20 Old 09-22-2015, 01:52 AM
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Quote:
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A few comments: I think things like 250s, 275s etc. have been fairly static for a little while now.


There has been frenzy on some of the more modern things like Testarossas and so on over the last few months and even, in the UK a 599 "Alonso" edition that was advertised at around the $1 million mark and then shortly after appeared has sold - which is beyond insanity to me for a car that is just an ugly paint job on a standard 599. I think the relevant question is who is buying these cars and I rather get the impression that it isn't car enthusiasts who are paying these prices but people seeking an investment return. I don't believe this is "children of the '80s" or new market investors buying these cars. If it were then that would give you a steady increase in prices not a suddne sharp rise which is what we have seen (although I primarily see UK prices). To me this looks just like the '80s before the crash and I am convinced there will be a "correction" on some of these at some point. When? Who knows but if someone did payUS $1 million for a 599 "Alonso" then I cannot believe they will ever get more than a fraction of their money back.


Jonathan
I agree there are a lot of dealers asking crazy money for cars in the UK especially RHD cars. I'm sure there will be correction in the very near future but it will not be as severe as the crash in the late 80's. I doubt we will see £60,000 Daytonas and £150,000 275s again.

On a side note how are you Jonathan not seen you at any events in ages.
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post #16 of 20 Old 09-22-2015, 05:00 AM
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Most of the high end exotics are being sold as consignment.

If the owner gets the price they sell otherwise they don't.

The days of panic selling are nowhere in sight - look at the last stock market dip it went right back up after the big boys orchestrated profitable plays comparing the two makes no sense as stated it's a phone call to buy or sell.

It's impossible to place a price on a passion - hobby owners lose money every day it's a lifestyle.

There will always be more buyers than sellers regardless of price - benchwarmers dying to get a piece of ownership are voluminous.

Cars especially exotics should be bought for enjoyment these cars are not built for the faint of heart.
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post #17 of 20 Old 09-22-2015, 01:05 PM
 
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Most of the high end exotics are being sold as consignment.

If the owner gets the price they sell otherwise they don't.

The days of panic selling are nowhere in sight - look at the last stock market dip it went right back up after the big boys orchestrated profitable plays comparing the two makes no sense as stated it's a phone call to buy or sell.

It's impossible to place a price on a passion - hobby owners lose money every day it's a lifestyle.

There will always be more buyers than sellers regardless of price - benchwarmers dying to get a piece of ownership are voluminous.

Cars especially exotics should be bought for enjoyment these cars are not built for the faint of heart.
I agree.

As a 308 owner, I have watched the 308 market swirl around me. When I was shopping, I was astounded in the "value for money" of a 308 compared to more expensive Jaguar E-types, Porsche 911s and Corvette C2s. It just didn't make sense. Sure, there were many more 308s built than any previous Ferrari, but their production numbers are minuscule compared to the Jags, 911s and 'Vettes (... and certainly compared to any modern comparably priced sports car).

It sure seems like we 308 owners are no longer disparagingly referred to as "bottom feeders" and now seem more and more frequently referred to as owners of Pininfarina's masterpiece. 308s sure are pretty.

There may be a bubble for the million dollar cars (although I think Champange612 is right), but it seems to me that the 1980s Ferraris were past due for a step change upward. They may go down a bit as speculators take their short-term profits, but unless classic cars cease to be of interest to people, "crashing" doesn't make sense to me for the 1980s cars.

FWIW, I keep my cars for a very long time and have no intention ever of selling my 308.

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post #18 of 20 Old 09-22-2015, 04:24 PM
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I agree.

As a 308 owner, I have watched the 308 market swirl around me. When I was shopping, I was astounded in the "value for money" of a 308 compared to more expensive Jaguar E-types, Porsche 911s and Corvette C2s. It just didn't make sense. Sure, there were many more 308s built than any previous Ferrari, but their production numbers are minuscule compared to the Jags, 911s and 'Vettes (... and certainly compared to any modern comparably priced sports car).

It sure seems like we 308 owners are no longer disparagingly referred to as "bottom feeders" and now seem more and more frequently referred to as owners of Pininfarina's masterpiece. 308s sure are pretty.

There may be a bubble for the million dollar cars (although I think Champange612 is right), but it seems to me that the 1980s Ferraris were past due for a step change upward. They may go down a bit as speculators take their short-term profits, but unless classic cars cease to be of interest to people, "crashing" doesn't make sense to me for the 1980s cars.

FWIW, I keep my cars for a very long time and have no intention ever of selling my 308.
The above post is a lil thing called passion and I love that about car people.
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post #19 of 20 Old 09-22-2015, 04:26 PM
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Brian A,
I love this topic and I agree fully. I think what happens is the automotive community sees a car at a certain price for so long they have a hard time accepting when prices go out of sight high.


The Dino's are a perfect example - I remember when they were selling for 60k and no one wanted them because they weren't "real Ferrari's" and didn't even have a V-8. Let me know if you find one for that price. I am a buyer. LOL


The next argument that comes up is that there are "so many" 308's....really? There may have been quite a few (I know there were 3042 QV's ever produced) but how many do you think remain and how many of those are not TOTAL basket cases? I am not saying 308's are even in the same playing field as Dino's but the days of buying a Ferrari 308 for 30k are gone forever, just like all the other beautiful Ferrari's (some of those I mean are no approaching 50 years old - my 308 is 32 so let's see how it does in the next 17 years).


Like a fine wine, there may be ebbs and flows in the price, but they don't depreciate with age...

"Sir, my concern is not whether God is on our side; my greatest concern is to be on God's side, for God is always right." - Abraham Lincoln

Last edited by MBFerrari; 09-22-2015 at 04:40 PM.
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post #20 of 20 Old 09-22-2015, 05:09 PM
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Remember, it's a global market and production numbers for Enzo era cars are much lower than Porsche -- has anyone seen the price jump for air-cooled Porsches lately?
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