Resale Value for Manual Transmission Ferraris - Ferrari Life
 
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post #1 of 11 Old 12-24-2013, 11:16 AM Thread Starter
 
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Resale Value for Manual Transmission Ferraris

Like many others I tend to look at the prices that used Ferraris command, more for informational purposes. What I've noticed is that many pricing sources lump prices together for a specific model, providing an overall price estimate for the car class. The Ferrari Market Letter's Asking Price Index perhaps being the most well known pricing source is an example.

While these guides are often very helpful, there is clearly a range between top quality cars and lesser versions of the same car, along with differences in pricing for manual and F1 versions of the same car. In the past this didn't matter very much since most "classic" cars were manual transmission, but with the growing number of Ferrari cars being produced, I wonder if it's time to look at the difference in price between manual and F1 versions of the same car?

For example, I personally think that the 360 is the last of the true manual transmission Ferraris. Yes, I know that there were many F1 360s produced, but I also think that given the technology of the 360's F1, many believe that the six speed manual is potentially more "fun" to drive. Even if it isn't you still had the choice of a manual transmission if you wanted it. Unlike the F430, the 360 can still be approach it's full driving potential with the manual transmission option.

While I admit to loving manual transmission cars, I also believe that the F430 with the F1 transmission is a better power train - the F430's multiple adjustments with the F1 really do, at least to me, add to the driving experience. I've driven the F430 in both F1 and manual versions, and at least for me, the F1 is a very exciting car and puts the capability of the car in my hands easier than the manual F430 does. I've also been on the track with both versions, with the help of a professional driing coach, and the information that can be downloaded through the F1's transmission and electronics is truly amazing. That doesn't exist with any model prior to the F430, and with the 458 there is no manual option at all.

So, my question is, given the limited number of manual transmission cars, and the "scarcity factor" since no more manuals will be produced, it is possible that the more recent manual transmission cars will have higher demand in the future, and if so, does it make sense to consider looking at the price of F1 and manual transmission cars separately? I've noticed recently that there is definitely an uptrend at least in asking prices for 360 manual transmission cars, and I suspect that we'll see it with the F430 as well.

By the way, the information on this site is amazing. I looked at a few posts that provided the total production of 360 Spiders with manual transmission during the entire model run. From that total I subtracted the RHD models. I was very surprised to find that in the entire production of 360 Spiders there were 1641 LHD cars produced with manual transmissions! That's not a very big supply, especially compared to over 15,000 total 360 cars produced of all types. Looking at the numbers in this perspective suggests that maybe manual transmission cars have depreciated as far as they are going to given the limited supply of existing cars, and the lack of any new ones being produced. Or maybe if they are still depreciating it's a great time to pick one up before the market adjusts to the lowered supply.

This isn't an really a discussion of which transmission is better, just a look at supply and demand and how it may affect future prices. What are your thoughts?
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post #2 of 11 Old 12-24-2013, 02:15 PM
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It depends

There is no scarcity of either types in the 360 and 430s. These models are clearly not like the white whale six speed 599s. Those are truly rare with limited supply coming to the market every 2-3 years. Like anything, it depends on the seller and buyer at that time. I bought my F430 and looked specifically for 6 speed. But I am not sure it is an asset when it comes to selling. It may be a liability for the reasons you suggested- the experience in the F430 F1 is so good. In the end, it is worth what you think it is to you and nothing more.

The thing I have learned here is the transmission is one factor in the rest of the car and the value is determined by model color condition miles options service record and transmission of course.

Maybe in twenty years there will a price differential, but not now.


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post #3 of 11 Old 12-24-2013, 04:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lencap View Post
it is possible that the more recent manual transmission cars will have higher demand in the future, and if so, does it make sense to consider looking at the price of F1 and manual transmission cars separately?

Yes and no.

Some maintain the manual 360s have a slight edge due to desirability. When I bought my Spider three years ago, the conventional wisdom said a stick added about $5-10K to the base price. But that depends on who you asked and when. Whether that still holds could certainly be debated.

Your question really focuses on the supply side, i.e. a small proportion of the total 360 production. I doubt anyone can predict the future demand of these cars.

I agree with Scott, there are now other factors that have a greater influence on the 360s value. And there are only so many dinosaurs like me who prefer a stick. And I'll take a slightly different spin on his prediction: Maybe three years ago but not now....

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post #4 of 11 Old 12-25-2013, 07:27 AM
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I have a theory about the future of manual vs. not-manual transmissions such as the Ferrari F1, Porsche's PDK (and previous Tiptronic), etc. This is not a comparison of manual vs. "automatic" or the virtues or value of either. I consider myself an "old school" guy but actually prefer the technology of F1 or PDK. (I'm using the term "automatic" generically.....I know the difference between an F1 or PDK gearbox and a true automatic.)


Here's the theory: in 20 years, the 20-30 year olds of today that are dreaming about a 360, a 430, a Porsche 997/991Turbo, etc. and who will be reaching their peak earning years will want, i.e. need, a non-manual car. Unfortunately, shifting a 3-pedal car is becoming a lost art especially with kids who have learned to drive in the past ten or so years and certainly those learning today. I think this is going to make a manual transmission less desirable. This is assuming anybody even cares about sports cars in 20 years and those 20-30 year olds still want the car they dreamed about when they were young.


Who knows......what do you think?


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post #5 of 11 Old 12-25-2013, 10:35 AM
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The last pure three pedal model Ferrari produced was the 550, which also has a V12. The F355 and 360 both have F1 versions.

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post #6 of 11 Old 12-25-2013, 08:30 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David993s View Post
... shifting a 3-pedal car is becoming a lost art especially with kids who have learned to drive in the past ten or so years and certainly those learning today. I think this is going to make a manual transmission less desirable...
While it is true that fewer and fewer people know how to drive a 3 pedal car, it is really not that hard to learn. The car salesperson can probably teach a new owner enough to get their new car off the lot and on their way to proficiency. Yeah, fancy stuff like heel-and-toe downshifting takes practice, but the basic standing start and upshift take only a few minutes to learn. My daughters have taught their friends.

It is a good question though if manual clutch transmissions will be in demand in the future decades. There is a current nostalgia for simpler "analog" cars - as they are starting to be described - but it will be interesting to see if the nostalgia will continue to grow or wane. There are so few durable mechanical things for people to tinker with any more, so I would argue that old cars will continue to be in demand satisfy the human compulsion to tinker. Old and analog means 3 pedals (in addition to other criteria).

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post #7 of 11 Old 12-26-2013, 02:54 AM
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Around 25% of all 360's came with 6-speed manuals, the rest with F1 flappy paddle gearshifts.

It costs around $6k in parts (roughly the same in labor) to convert a 360 or F430 with an AMT (automated manual transmission) or 'F1' in Ferrari marketing terminology, into a manual shifting car. Conversely you can also convert a 6-Speed manual into a AMT car with parts too, this is more expensive though unless used parts are obtained from a breakers yard.

Therefore the most it could really impact prices is marginal, perhaps $10k-$15k either direction...
Any more than that then it makes sense to 'convert' a car your looking at to whatever your preference...

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post #9 of 11 Old 12-26-2013, 09:00 AM
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Now I need both

Manual transmissions will always be around- to my understanding they are cheaper to make and easier to maintain and more common outside the US in general.

Whether this has any bearing on Fcars is not known. But as a boy, growing up at my fathers knee with his gated shifters, I cannot imagine not having one at least, in my garage.

I love my daily driver, a Maserati GT S F1 but the transmission ( which is a love child sibling to that in the 599 I believe) carried a theoretical premium over the automatic ( no stick) and is rarer ( due to 1 year only in US) but I expect it to be priced like all other 09 Maser GT Ss out there.

After recently purchasing a new house, all I can say is that any commodity is only worth what someone will pay for it, not what the seller thinks, the appraiser, my brother, etc. Priced right everything sells.


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post #10 of 11 Old 12-26-2013, 04:24 PM
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I tend to agree that manual stick shifts will remain manufactured for at least a couple of more decades. But you probably won't see them return to Ferrari with any regularity as they are not considered "cutting edge" (which is what Ferrari's image requires, ie, that it be a leader in offering innovative sports car technologies).

To mainstream exotic car makers, the manual gearbox with gated shifter is passe' and dinosaur-like. Ferrari cannot portray itself as behind the times. However, to my knowledge, you can have your Ferrari made to order if you pay them enough cash. Anything can be done with enough money. A couple of customers did this for their new Californias. I believe 2 Californias exist in the world with manual gated shifters.
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post #11 of 11 Old 12-26-2013, 04:29 PM
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