Irene ... - Ferrari Life
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post #1 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 09:32 AM Thread Starter
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Irene ...

Wish all you guys the best of luck to weather the storm.

Watching it on TV - looks serious!
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post #2 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 10:39 AM
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Thanks, I had the 328 parked on the 4 post lift. I removed it and parked it under the lift and put the top on in case one of my many trees hits the garage again. Tropical storm warning for us folks just west of DC. My place in Ocean City MD is going to take a direct hit.

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post #3 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 10:48 AM
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Kevin...I just plotted the radar echo. The storm is presently moving at 67 True. Unless its a wobble, the storm should not get much closer to OC than it is right now.

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post #4 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 11:04 AM
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Yup. It looks like it's not gonna be as bad as expected in DC.
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post #5 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 11:57 AM
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Much ado about nothing.
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post #6 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 12:30 PM
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Quote:
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Much ado about nothing.
A Cat1 hurricane that is expected to hit every major city on the east coast is nothing?

They are calling for 6-10" of rain in the next 24 hours here and its already been raining for 3 weeks so the ground is saturated making it loose around the the tree rootsso they are not able to withstand a whole lot of wind.....but it there will be 50-70 mph wind here which will mean an awful lot of damage to the trees and anything near them like powers and houses.
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post #7 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 01:10 PM
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Mark ... while I understand your concern I believe the Media and Government have dramatically over stated the situation. Dry air entrainment has been ripping this thing apart for a few hours now. I waiting for the next data point but southwesterly shear appears to be dramatically reducing the "energy" of this system. Radar imagery has indicates a very substantial move towards the NE and was recently plotted at 67 True. Radar tacking is notoriously inaccurate however can indicate change. If this new course holds and is verified by the next data plot, the storm will be moving on a trajectory somewhere near Nantucket and will miss most of New England. Please note that this new course could be associated with a "Wobble" which is somewhat common on landfall and masks the intended course. We are just going to have to see what the data confirms. We also need to see exactly how the shear and entrainment affect it but I expect an increase in pressure to something near 970 or 980 MB.

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post #8 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 01:21 PM
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5:00 data confirms a substantial move to the east. Present course is 47 True. Present confirmed course extrapolates to missing Nantucket to the east by something like 30 miles. I don't see anything causing the track to move back to the west but don't have real time data access.


Then again, Bill Murray thought the Blizzard would miss Punxsutawney altogether also and look what happened to him.

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Last edited by Saint Bastage; 08-27-2011 at 01:37 PM.
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post #9 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 01:43 PM
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We are experiencing local flooding.

( cant believe a Hobie cat was out sailing earlier today and my neighbor went kayaking. Dumb.

The winds are just now starting to pickup substantially. Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 KT) gusting to 33 MPH (29 KT).

My Koi and pond goldfish are complaining, enough already!
They give new meaning to the term "Wetpet."

I watched a seagull desperately trying to fly north back to our beach to no avail.

There is also a bird struggling on the ground on the backside of my pool.
The wind must have slammed it into something. I feel bad for it and hope it makes it through the night.

Serious storm? Only for the three people who already died as a result.
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post #10 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 01:57 PM
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Good point Al... I am speaking from a local perspective only. The stuff you guys are experiencing is of course "NOT COOL" and I apologize if I've minimized that at all. Certainly not my intention. The State of Connecticut is being unbelievably coercive and without due cause. They are talking about closing I-95. I'm pretty sure NY is also overreacting.

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post #11 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 02:21 PM
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Quote:
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I'm pretty sure NY is also overreacting.
Flooding is the issue they are concerned most about in NYC (and here), at least that's what I keep hearing. The storm surge is expected at high tide and after 6+" of rain will have fallen on the area so even a mild 6' surge will flood a large area then as the rain heads north and the rivers all converge on....you guessed it NYC it will get worse. It's going to be an expensive mess, and Katrina kind of damage but some serious flooding.
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post #12 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 02:25 PM
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Oh sure, some will die, but they do in T-storms regularly, and there will be some flooding, some property damage, but c-mon: the winds are only 85mph. Not nearly as nasty as we were lead to believe it was going to be.

Which is a good thing, of course, but still somewhat ... anticlimactic.
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post #13 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 02:35 PM
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Lots of wind /rain so far here, the worse is yet to come, should hit between 9pm and 3am here...
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post #14 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 02:35 PM
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Quote:
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Not nearly as nasty as we were lead to believe it was going to be..
Isn't this exactly what they were calling? it did drop to a cat1 a bit sooner than expected but the main issue has always been flooding and it sure looks like that is what's coming.
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post #15 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 02:37 PM
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Storm surge > wind.

The fact is, this WAS a huge storm and even though wind speeds have dropped there is a large wall of water pushed ahead of it that will still have to go somewhere. The CAT 1,2,3 simply measures current windspeed and doesn't properly express the surge potential.


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post #16 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 03:08 PM
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one good thing will come out of it though. The powers that be in NY can test their ability to get the sheeple to do what ever they are told on a mass scale. Practice for.......?

did i mention there was also an elevated threat of terror as well? Hah, just kidding. don't worry.

just follow my motto-better safe than sorry.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. v View Post
Oh sure, some will die, but they do in T-storms regularly, and there will be some flooding, some property damage, but c-mon: the winds are only 85mph. Not nearly as nasty as we were lead to believe it was going to be.

Which is a good thing, of course, but still somewhat ... anticlimactic.


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post #17 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 03:17 PM
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It passed us on Friday. When I came back from PT Friday morning I could clearly see the curvature of the outer clouds from here. There were some sparse clouds passing overhead at a VERY high rate of speed.



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post #18 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 03:59 PM
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I'm crossing my fingers for all of you. May you stay safe and free of harm.


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post #19 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 04:55 PM
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Whoa, wind speed is back up to 115.

Batten down the hatches, I spoke too soon ... hurricane's a comin'.

Good luck to all in the path of this Hurricane!
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post #20 of 29 Old 08-27-2011, 05:01 PM
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May all in the affected area stay safe and well. Jimmy
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