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post #1 of 132 Old 03-01-2014, 10:41 PM Thread Starter
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Crimea

Not really a ferrari related thread, but i know, that we have some First Hand experts around here and thats the reason to ask about your thoughts/ potential of the crimea conflict?
Mainly....could/will we experience a new seperation in a style like East/West Germany in '61 with NATO flying in to deliver most needed necessities?

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post #2 of 132 Old 03-01-2014, 11:15 PM
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Not really a ferrari related thread, but i know, that we have some First Hand experts around here and thats the reason to ask about your thoughts/ potential of the crimea conflict?
Mainly....could/will we experience a new seperation in a style like East/West Germany in '61 with NATO flying in to deliver most needed necessities?

212,
I'm not expert about but i'm interested to know.
There are big interests of money in that part of world .... (oil & gas...)

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post #3 of 132 Old 03-01-2014, 11:36 PM
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212, nothing new under the sun. Just look around these days and there are plenty of conflicts involving ethnic divisive issues all over the world in various continents.

As per issues at hand in Crimea, seems like the geopolitical mess from yesteryears are simply coming back and haunting us now. A situation analogous to molten lava suppressed artificially and blasting open under a crack.

When the issue involves ethnic confrontations, throw in natural resources, with the neo USSR, Russia, as your friendly neighbor, this is a cocktail for disaster. Russia would meddle one way or another. As for the US, I am afraid their track record is not so pure that they can expound themselves as the good guys and tell Russia what not to do.

Not very optimistic, IMHO, just my opinion.

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post #4 of 132 Old 03-01-2014, 11:47 PM
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Sad and difficult situation and not much the western world can do about it at this point without risking a major war. Putin has already seized the Crimea and it looks like he will move troops into the eastern "Russian" parts of the Ukraine shortly. Ukraine, even if not formally split into two countries will defacto be divided moving forward.

I have no idea what Ukraine's military capabilities are but so far they do not appear interested or capable of engaging the Russian military.
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post #5 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 12:04 AM
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Ukraine's army is roughly an 1/8th the size of Russia and last year it's defence budget was something like $2.4 Bn US vs Russia's $850 Bn US or so. Add in to that mix the fact there will be a percentage of it's military drawn from the ethnic Russian population and there is little it can sensibly do. It's a dangerous cocktail of former Soviet block geo-politics clashing head on with those who gained power in the Wild West style grab of former state run oil and gas reserves who have been pulling the levers of power for their own ends. Putin will not wish to lose the strategic bases Russia has in the Crimea. With such a large and vocal ethnic Russian population calling for protection from Moscow he cannot seen to be leaving them adrift or he will face further trouble in other regions that are at odds with him. This is another Georgia where backing down is not on the cards for Moscow. The wealthy Ukranian oligarchs unhappy at the prospect of returning to dance to Moscow's tune are cynically stirring up the desire for a more Western style of living and hoping to drag the US and UK into support of a "friendly" democracy.

The incredible irony is that 100 years ago this sort of sabre rattling got dangerously out of control very quickly and now, as was the case then, there are treaties in place guaranteeing Ukraine's sovereign integrity. Let's hope cooler heads prevail this century. It seems we never learn from our past.

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post #6 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 01:09 AM Thread Starter
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Thanks for those well received comments and thoughts. As it was said, ukrainian military Power is totally neglectable against those of russia, strategically and troop wise.
What about Military atomic plants and Atomic rocket heads within the ship and submarine base in sevastopol ? To my understanding, this is the First conflict since a Long time within a Region who ammased all these atomic head weapons.
Any further thoughts about this ?

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post #7 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 06:11 AM
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My wife is Ukrainian and her parents live in Crimea so we're watching this pretty closely.......

You see on the news about the strategic ports and military base......but the reality is there's nothing there that's been very strategic in 100+ years and serves no strategic purpose at all today.

I think the real issue is simply that Russians have vacationed in Crimea for hundreds of years because it's nice there and they want it back. I really think its literally that simple.

Putin has been expanding Russian to borders he prefers for many years now and no one has done anything but "very strongly object". so why would he change his path now? He's got Crimea, he'll most likely take all of south/earthen Ukraine and the west will yet again "very strongly object" and wonder who's next it appears..........
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post #8 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 07:49 AM
 
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The Russians have to take Crimea because they have an entire naval fleet at Sevastopol. It's also their only freshwater port. I think it's almost a definite that they'll take eastern Ukraine, and Putin will take it all if he feels like he can without consequences (which he probably does). If he thinks he will have to fight the US and/or NATO (which he doesn't) he'll back off. Putin doesn't want WW3, either.

Edit: Sevastopol is their only warm freshwater port that doesn't freeze.

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post #9 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 08:00 AM
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The Russians have to take Crimea because they have an entire naval fleet at Sevastopol. It's also their only freshwater port.
They do have a fleet there....but it's a fleet to nowhere unless Turkey choose to let them in and out so not particularly valuable, plus they have other ports or ability to build them all the coat and of course in the territory they annexed from Georgia.

No, it's about old places and traditional vacation spots as more than anything........
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post #10 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 08:24 AM
 
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It's a major trade route, and Turkey will not tell the Russians no. They could build another port, but it would be massively expensive. I'm sure the traditional vacationing spot plays a role in this but IMHO is not as important. I'm sure national pride plays a role as well.

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post #11 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 08:33 AM
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Some news from the press:

"Ukrainian warships are changing sides and now steaming towards Russian naval bases."
"The fighter pilots of the tiny Ukrainian Air Force get 40 hours of training per year."
"There is no political will to encourage resistance from fear of giving the Russians reason to strike."
"Ukraine is important for Putin's ambitions for his customs and trade region." (Let alone his ambitions for a military pact extension.)

Putin sees the benefits of land expansion by means of Soviet methods. His tradeoff apparently is that, the West's political isolation of Russia as a counter action, will not cut it. He may very well be right and walk it. He is still in Georgia after an outright war. Moldavia still has Russian "peace troops". Armenia was forced to turn it's back on Western relations and Belarus was corrupted into obedience.

What can the West do? Putin has broken a UN treaty by setting troops on Ukrainian sovereign territory. He justifies it by claiming an obligation to defend Russian lives abroad. History doesn't repeat itself but it makes good enough copies.

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post #12 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 08:41 AM
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No, it's about old places and traditional vacation spots as more than anything........
A territory with supposedly little strategic value but which can be easily taken at little cost, may have great trade value when negotiating future conflicts?

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post #13 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 08:56 AM
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Some news from the press:

"Ukrainian warships are changing sides and now steaming towards Russian naval bases."
.
About 1/2 or Ukraine has some connection to Russia.....so the military reaaly can't fight a war against Russia effectively. That was the reason Stalin very purposefully mixed people up in the Soviet Union.....its a strategy that works and Ukraine can not defend themselves against Russia.

This is a mess.
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post #14 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 08:58 AM
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Turkey will not tell the Russians no.
If there were war they certainly would...and war is why Navies exist. The Black Sea is fleet is of very little military value to Russia
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post #15 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 10:04 AM
 
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If there were war they certainly would...and war is why Navies exist. The Black Sea is fleet is of very little military value to Russia
It's their main access to the Mediterranean. Russian-Turkish relations are better now than ever, especially economically.

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post #16 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 10:32 AM
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It's their main access to the Mediterranean. Russian-Turkish relations are better now than ever, especially economically.
Putin is terrified by Turkish-EU relations...

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post #17 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 10:43 AM
 
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Didn't they agree to a huge nuclear energy deal a few years back?

Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They were also planning a joint investment bank to increase trade.

Turkey, Russia to establish joint investment bank - Trend.Az | Mobile version

Russia uses this route to send aid to Assad, and Turkey doesn't seem to mind...

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post #18 of 132 Old 03-02-2014, 11:02 AM
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It's their main access to the Mediterranean. Russian-Turkish relations are better now than ever, especially economically.
yes, but war is war.......and a fleet in the black sea with nearly worthless.

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Putin is terrified by Turkish-EU relations...
exactly....
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post #19 of 132 Old 03-03-2014, 12:03 AM
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Putin has been expanding Russian to borders he prefers for many years now and no one has done anything but "very strongly object". so why would he change his path now? He's got Crimea, he'll most likely take all of south/earthen Ukraine and the west will yet again "very strongly object" and wonder who's next it appears..........
Hopefully he will stop short of invading Poland.

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post #20 of 132 Old 03-03-2014, 05:40 AM
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Hopefully he will stop short of invading Poland.
Hopefully.

I think pretty much everyone thing's Crimea is a done deal and really no way to change it....but keeping him out of south/earn Ukraine seems important.

With Crimea in Russian hands, a Russian leaning President could probably not possibly win an election in Ukraine again and Ukraine should stabalize quite a bit in spite of any efforts Russia makes to keep it unstable.....so it's probably now or never for Putin to grab south/east Ukraine
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