[JazzyO]

Hi all,

I was just wondering what you guys are thinking with the current global monetary crisis and the impact (if there is any) on the vintage Ferrari market.

The story is this: the past year and a half almost every Ferrari model that was in production before 1984 has rocketed in value (for a couple of models until mid last year, see graph). I am considering splashing out quite a bit of cash on a second Ferrari, and for me the main consideration HAS to be that it is a either a classic or vintage model. Within the vintage market there are few that I could consider but I happen to be absolutely in love with the 330 GTC which is at the moment still in my price range (albeit just). In the classic field the Berlinetta Boxer is a strong contender. Very different cars, of course, but they have something in common: they have increased enormously in price in a very short space of time.

While I'm perfectly happy to put down the cash, I am seriously wondering if we are not close to an adjustment in prices. It seems to me that a lot of people are suffering from the impending (or already started?) recession and a correction of the Ferrari vintage market similar to the early '90ies could be afoot (albeit probably smaller than at that stage). An indication that there is already something happening, seems to me that there are a few cars for sale out there but very few seem to sell at their current prices. A seemingly nice 330 at Mario Bernardi has been for sale over a year, and several 365 BB's have been on the market for a long time as well.

What are your thoughts? If you wanted to buy a 330 GTC or 365 GT4/BB would you snap it up now or would you wait out 2008 and see what happens?

Looking forward to seeing your wisdom.

BTW - to clarify: I'm not looking to buy the car as an investment. I'm just interested NOT to buy it at the peak of the market like the japanese guy who lost $10m on his GTO buying it '89 and selling it in '94.


Onno

[archiegibbs]

A crystal ball would be very useful.
I work in the world of finance, and I don't think the average person really knows just how crappy it is at the moment. Interbank lending has almost dried up, credit is far more difficult to obtain, almost impossible if you have defaulted on payments in the past. Even clean clients are finding it difficult as lenders increase their rates to put customers off borrowing. Lenders do not want to lend money.
How will this effect the Ferrari market? Hard to tell, I suppose it depends on how people buy them. It won't effect the cash buyer, but it might reduce the number of people buying if they require finance.
I can't see there being a huge fall in the value of Ferrari's, but I can't see prices of more common cars going through the roof either, the market will probably level off over the next 12 months.
I don't think that the GTO market will be effected at all as I'd imagine the people who buy them have so much money already, global credit downturns don't effect them, and with their being a very limited supply of GTO's, potential buyers outnumber the supply of cars.
Just my view, I could be completely wrong.

[Boxer]

I see a couple of things happening to the market. The modern supercars and highly collectable early cars (250 SWB, 250 Testa rossa, etc) will continue to rise a bit more before hardening. These cars are being bought by collectors for cash and are seen as safe assets in a highly volatile economy. The turmoil in the credit markets actually has positive effect on these cars values.

The mid tier vintage group seems to have peaked and may already be starting to pull back a bit. My benchmark here is the Daytona and I am seeing a large number of cars on the market which are not moving. Asking prices have stopped moving up and from what I have heard, the gap between the original ask and the sell price is widening. You still see a few silly sales but now only the best cars are going for more than Euro 230k. There is a Daytona at Eberlein Ferrari (official dealer) in Kassel Germany which has an ask of Euro 270k. The car has been on sale for 18 months and has just had a full engine rebuild. Clearly priced over the market. Boxer prices follow Daytonas so I would guess they have peaked as well.

A bit further down, I would guess that all the 3x8 models will basically hold where they are. Prices here are determined much more by the condition of the car then its asset/investment value. Only exception are every early fiberglass 308s which are now becoming vintage collectables and are in demand for use in vintage racing. All are fully depreciated.

Where the hit is going to be is on 360s, 550/575, & 456 GTs. On the 360, you have plenty of supply, prices are still high, and with the tightening credit market, they are now out of reach for a lot of people who might have been buyers a year or two ago. As a result they will probably drop a bit more to meet demand before leveling out. On the 550/575, similar issue to the 360 but less demand as their is a perception that these are less sporty and more expensive to run. Probably the best buy in the next 12 months. The 456GT is the same as the 550 but has the added weight of being a 4 seat Ferrari with a reputation for vicious attacking owners wallets. Here supply is running well ahead of demand.

Anyway, just my two cents. Will be interesting to see how it all sorts out.

[JazzyO]

Hi guys,

just the kind of responses I was looking for (thoughtful, insightful) - thanks. It seems you are having similar thoughts as I am - that for the non-top Ferrari's (let's say sub 250k Euro) we're looking to be at a summit. Boxer's comment about Daytona's not selling for more than 230k is very helpful - it makes the 330 GTC for sale in Holland way overpriced at 210k Euro.

This summer is going to be very interesting, I think. At the moment, we should be having quite a bit of movement in the market as a lot of people buy these cars when the sun comes out (Mar - Jun). However, we seem to have hit fairly stagnant waters, which could indicate a price drop in a couple of months. I'm not in the market until mid summer, so it's going to be very exciting to see what will happen. It certainly looks like it will a buyer's market, where you can just make a reasonable offer and have a good chance of saving a few bob.


Onno

[212Export]

Dear JazzyO

Very nice price graph you put on at the bottom of your first comment.
I happened to be in the situation of buying a 330 GTC in summer 2004 and sold it in Spring 2006. A wonderful, nice car with great apperance in a discret way. I only can recommend it to you.
I'm in the same situation as you are: Wanting to spend money for a dream (without any thought of speculation) but realizing that I would probably mark the "high" price of the wave.
I strongly believe that the credit crunch will not pass the collectors market without big pain. Even the 250 GTO market. Do not forget that even the richest person, being a good economist, is willing to pay E 15 Millions, if he's expecting prices to drop. Its a psychological games also for those with deep pockets. One of the famous Swiss collectors bought a 250 GTO in 1990 for around CHF 13 Mio. (he had and has still depp pockets) only to resell it in '93 for CHF 4 Millions. Now you tell me what influence deep pockets may have ?
One thing often forgotten are the dealers and their deepness of pockets (or better their "backers")
Lets assume that some of the "backers" of 3-4 well known dealers are getting crunched on the markets. They may need the liquidity or want to sell their share in the dealers organization. The dealer is not able to pay out immediatly (or not willing because he see's a market contraction looming in the future) and needs to sell out he inventory who was at a standstill since 18 month (remember Boxers description of growing disparancies between asking price and selling price or timespan of firts offering and still offering)
So the cars must go no matter what. That may opens a followthru by other dealers (not because they need to sell but because they want to lock the still high prices.

I'm sure my comment did not help you but if you WANT to drive your 330 GTC now, then you should fulfill your dream NOW. If you do not matter to wait another year I would assume you could get it for a lower price.

[JazzyO]

I should say that I shamelessly stole the price graph from another forum, which is why it is not updated to 2008. I just don't have the information, but I thought (as you did) it was marvellously insightful. So I hope that whoever made that graph is not too angry - I'm just very glad I got my hands on it and thought I should share.

Some useful thoughts there, 212Export. Thanks for the support for the choice of model - I'm sure it's a great car even though I've never sat in one let alone driven it. So far the oldest Ferrari I've driven was a 1977 308 GT4.

If I should buy a 330 this summer, it will stretch my finances right to limit (what I mean is: I'll buy the car cash but won't have "anything" left). It's a position I was in last year when I bought my 550 and I don't like it much - I like to have a bit of flexibility in case of unforeseen issues, particularly if I buy a Ferrari that's older than I am (as any 330 is).

So, at the moment I'm starting to lean towards two extremes: either I plug the FAS (Ferrari Acquisition Syndrome) with a cheaper model this year and see what next year will bring, or I try and temper my enthousiasm and see what happens at the end of the year or maybe next year.

But then I stare at this one for sale in Germany.... I can just see it standing next to my Nightblue 550...

Ah well, it's hard making decisions! But fun, too.


Onno

[archiegibbs]

Onno, the 330 looks immaculate. Personally I wouldn't use up every spare euro I had to buy a car, but then again I have a wife, several children and houses to support. If you are a single man with no other commitments, go for it, live your dream.

[JazzyO]

Originally Posted by archiegibbs

Onno, the 330 looks immaculate. Personally I wouldn't use up every spare euro I had to buy a car, but then again I have a wife, several children and houses to support. If you are a single man with no other commitments, go for it, live your dream.

Ah, the voice of reason. You don't have a birthmark shaped like 666 on you somewhere, do you?

She is absolutely gorgeous, that's true, and asking price is E189k which is quite reasonable in the current market. Too bad she may be sold before I get the dosh... We shall see. Still like the idea of a nice Boxer as well, though.


Onno

[212Export]

Originally Posted by archiegibbs

Onno, the 330 looks immaculate. Personally I wouldn't use up every spare euro I had to buy a car, but then again I have a wife, several children and houses to support. If you are a single man with no other commitments, go for it, live your dream.

I totally agree to never ever to use the last dime. Besides its hard but very educative and inspiring from a philosophical point of view to be able to hold on and wait for something wonderful to come or happen.
You may wait until buying a 330 GTC will not cost you your last shirt, much better (in my opinion) than to go for another, cheaper car (but still dreaming from that 330 GTC)

I'm kind of in a similar situation trying to choose between a F40 and a F50. I strongly believe that the 2 cars are masterpieces and epochal to Ferrari street cars. I may should buy both, but this gives me some strange feelings about the usability timewise (together with the Scuderia which will arrive in summer) and some guilt feelings money wise to spend such enormeous sums "just" for cars.
You see my point, we are all turning our belief systems and problems on this or that decision and how we arrive at final (?) conclusions.

Guilt feelings by the way would probably be a wonderful topic to discuss in this forum anyway. I'm pretty sure that many of us would be able to fill books about it.

[JazzyO]

The main thing is we can count ourselves fortunate to have such luxury problems, 212Export.

One thing is for sure, if I don't get to buy any new car but still can enjoy my 550, I'm still as happy as I can be. It is such a pleasure to own any Ferrari. Sometimes we can get a bit carried away by all the other goodies available (and Ferrari has tens of models in its history I would want to own), but in the end as you allude to, you can only drive one at a time.


Onno

[Boxer]

Originally Posted by 212Export

I'm kind of in a similar situation trying to choose between a F40 and a F50. I strongly believe that the 2 cars are masterpieces and epochal to Ferrari street cars. I may should buy both, but this gives me some strange feelings about the usability timewise (together with the Scuderia which will arrive in summer) and some guilt feelings money wise to spend such enormeous sums "just" for cars.
You see my point, we are all turning our belief systems and problems on this or that decision and how we arrive at final (?) conclusions.

Guilt feelings by the way would probably be a wonderful topic to discuss in this forum anyway. I'm pretty sure that many of us would be able to fill books about it.

Guilt??????

As you have the Scuderia on the way, and given your experience and skill level, the F50 would make for an ideal garage companion .

[Boxer]

JazzyO, Before you decide, suggest you drive a 365 GTB/4 Daytona, the Boxer, and the 330 GT. Then make a final call.

[archiegibbs]

As Boxer said, try them all before you decide. Another advantage of this is that you can justify using your spare time going around Ferrari dealers trying out different cars. It's research, honestly

[JazzyO]

Originally Posted by archiegibbs

As Boxer said, try them all before you decide. Another advantage of this is that you can justify using your spare time going around Ferrari dealers trying out different cars. It's research, honestly

Great advice. I'm really looking forward to April. I've got three Ferrari events lined up and plan to scour Ferrari specialists in between. Should be an octane filled two weeks!


Onno

[212Export]

Originally Posted by Boxer

Guilt??????

As you have the Scuderia on the way, and given your experience and skill level, the F50 would make for an ideal garage companion .

Thank you Boxer (for the flowers ). Even though this belongs probably to the "supercar" section of our forum, you are more inclined to suggest the F50 over the F40 for myself